Animal Attraction

A report predicts that many African farmers will shift from crops to hardier livestock as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns shift under climate change.

A new study has found that, by 2050, hotter conditions and shifting rainfall patterns could render 500,000 to 1 million square kilometers of marginal African farmland that is home to 20-35 million people unable to support even subsistence agriculture. This may make livestock production an attractive alternative for millions of poor farmers across Africa, according to the study published in a special edition of the journal Environmental Science and Policy.

Since some livestock survive under conditions that are too severe for crops, they can serve poor African households as a buffer against climate change risks. Photo: Stevie Mann, ILRI.

“Livestock, particularly animals that are known to be tolerant of heat and drought, can survive in conditions that are far more severe than what crops can tolerate,” explains Philip Thornton, an International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) scientist and one of the paper’s co-authors. “Livestock can provide poor households with a buffer against the risk of climate change and allow them to take advantage of increasing demand for animal products in Africa."

“Any increase in livestock must be managed sustainably,” adds Carlos Seré, director general of ILRI. “But our research shows there are many areas in Africa where farming communities will add more livestock to their agriculture systems. We should prepare now for this inevitability.”

The analysis, Croppers to livestock keepers: Livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change, is one of several studies published in the journal that emerged from an April 2008 conference at Oxford University on food security and environmental change.

Thornton and colleague Peter Jones of Waen Associates in the United Kingdom sought to identify farm-dependent areas of Africa that might be most vulnerable to climate change. They focused on the arid and semi-arid regions where scant precipitation routinely causes crops to fail in at least 1 out of every 6 growing seasons.

The researchers then considered the impact of climate change in these regions and found that, even if climate change is moderated by global reductions in carbon emissions, many farmers will likely face considerably worse growing conditions. The key measure was whether climate change would cause the number of reliable crop-growing days to drop below 90 between 2000 and 2050.

They concluded that, under scenarios in which carbon emissions remain high, the number of reliable growing days would drop below 90 for almost 1 million square kilometers of marginal farmland in Africa. Assuming a lower emissions scenario, they project that 500,000 square kilometers would fail to maintain the 90-day standard.

The researchers warn that, if reliable growing periods drop below 90 days, “maize cultivation, already marginal, will basically no longer be possible as a normal agricultural activity.” They add that in some places rain could become so scarce that even drought-tolerant crops such as millet would be difficult to grow. Under these conditions, they say, livestock could be the key to keeping food on the table and earning income.

The study notes that livestock can provide a significant income boost to farmers on marginal lands within a day’s travel of urban areas, where growing demand for meat and dairy products fuels lucrative markets. Thornton and Jones point out that looking to livestock as a bulwark against challenging climates is not novel, as across Africa livestock is a crucial coping mechanism for poor people trying to survive in difficult environments.

Thornton says the research goal is to use climate change projections to pinpoint areas in Africa where it is appropriate to promote livestock ownership on smallholder farms and to help farmers deal with the inherent risks. He added that policy decisions would benefit greatly from better local data, including projections of temperatures and rainfall patterns.

He and Jones acknowledge a mismatch between the kind of localized climate change information that is needed and what is available. Even at regional scales, different climate models sometimes disagree on how rising temperatures may affect rainfall. The researchers say that investments in generating detailed data are warranted by their potential to bring new precision and efficiency to aid programs for alleviating poverty in rural Africa.

They caution that better data will inevitably show that, in parts of Africa where growing conditions are already difficult, only so much can be done to help farmers adapt to climate change. It is important for development agencies and governments to understand that, as climates become more inhospitable to agriculture in some places, there may be “a point at which households and farming systems become so stressed that there are few alternatives to an exit from farming.”